Liquidity risk and maturity management over the credit cycle

We show that firm demand-side factors are strong drivers of procyclical refinancing behavior over the credit cycle using novel data from the Shared National Credit program. Firms are more likely to refinance early when credit conditions are good to keep the effective maturity of their loans long and hedge against having to refinance in tight credit conditions. High credit quality firms are better able to hedge, making their refinancing propensity more sensitive to credit cycles than less creditworthy firms. There is a strong relationship between refinancing a loan, and subsequent growth in capital expenditure, especially when a loan is refinanced early.     

The innovative bureaucrat: evidence from the correctional authorities in Washington State

Bureaucracies are usually regarded as inefficient, wasteful mechanisms. Contrary to this deeply rooted perception of bureaucracy, this paper documents the case of the correctional authorities in Washington State, a bureaucracy that acted with a considerable degree of innovation and professionalism. Their task was to administer a risk assessment instrument that measured the level of risk posed by offenders by way of a numerical score. They used that score to identify the level of supervision offenders were to receive once released into the community. In analyzing the data, I discovered an unusual application of the instrument that resulted in many offenders being bumped to a higher supervision level. Using a regression discontinuity design, I uncover the mechanics of the bumping-up process and I generate an instrument that is cleansed of the manipulation. I find that the manipulated instrument predicts serious recidivism events better than the cleansed instrument, especially when these events involve high-risk offenders, thus providing evidence that the authorities had good reason to undertake the manipulation.     

Modelling the iron ore price index: A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource, predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects. Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network, this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China’s iron ore futures and spot markets, and to forecast the price index series of China’s and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market. The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets. However, the forward price in China’s iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market, and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information. The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets. The results are valuable references for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.     

Financial risk attitudes and aging in Australia

A number of empirical studies document that people tend to become more risk averse as they get older. But other studies find only little evidence that age matters for financial risk attitudes. This prompts a call for revisiting the relationship between age and risk attitude to better support policy recommendations. The current paper contributes to this effort by utilising large-scale population data to conduct a dynamic panel analysis. Care is taken to avoid the problem of endogeneity of lagged risk attitude in modelling its effects. Analysis reveals that individuals' past risk attitude has a positive effect on their current risk attitude. However, there is only little evidence that risk attitude and age are systematically related. Our results shed some light on the previous contradictory empirical findings in the literature and suggest that past risk attitude is potentially of greater relevance than chronological age in determining current risk attitude.     

Economic Justice: Confronting Dilemmas

Abstract:

This article uses a simple economic model to study important issues in debates about distributive justice. What role do non-labor productive assets play? What role does private ownership play? What role does scarcity play? What role do credit and labor markets play? The model is used to address these questions, and in the process explain why even if those who acquire scarce productive assets do so fairly, and in a manner that deserves compensation, there is reason to believe (1) that when people own productive assets privately outcomes will become unfair, and (2) credit and labor markets will aggravate inequities. The article concludes that distributive justice requires compensation commensurate with the economic sacrifices people make and acknowledges important challenges that must be overcome to achieve this.     

审计师行业专长对审计重要性水平的影响——基于股权性质的调节作用研究

审计师行业专长意味着在特定领域较强的专业胜任能力,对于防范审计风险和提高审计质量都有显著影响。围绕审计师行业专长影响审计重要性水平这一主题，结合股权性质的调节作用，选取2016—2018年沪深两市A股上市公司作为研究对象，进行实证检验。结果表明，审计师行业专长对重要性水平有正向影响，如果被审计单位是国有控股上市公司，审计师行业专长与重要性水平的正相关关系更显著。这对审计机构人力资源配置、监管部门完善相关制度及监督工作具有参考价值。     

博弈视角下大学生互联网消费信贷决策行为研究

基于博弈论视角,从理论上构建了金融机构与大学生消费信贷决策的动态博弈模型,并引入信誉机制,比较分析了传统金融机构退出大学生信用卡市场而互联网金融大举进入校园信贷市场的深刻原因,同时借助大学生消费信贷调查一手数据实证检验了信誉机制的有效性,研究结果表明:在单次和有限次重复博弈中,“囚徒困境”普遍存在,而在无限次重复博弈中,尽管利率和交易成本下降有利于促进交易,但信息不对称问题却使博弈只能进行有限次,因此要达成长期合作,必须引入具有“社会性惩罚”的信誉机制来抑制大学生的短期投机行为,然信誉机制对于促进传统金融机构与大学生合作的作用有限,更多的是促进互联网金融机构与大学生消费信贷关系的达成,实证结果验证了该结论。由此得到的启示是,充分利用互联网大数据优势、强化互联网金融市场监管、引导大学生树立正确的消费观和责任意识,有助于破解“一放就乱,一管就死”的监管困局,这对于规范互联网金融校园消费信贷市场具有重要现实意义。     

绿色信贷制度创新研究——以推动企业生态创新为视角

绿色信贷是绿色金融的重要组成部分,是银行业金融机构履行环境责任的重要途径,然而现行制度在信贷风险分担、长效推动、环境绩效的监督测算等方面都还存在不足。本文在解析绿色信贷和生态创新一致性目标的基础上,以推动企业生态创新的全新视角,构建面向企业生态创新的绿色信贷信用担保授信机制和环境效益监测机制,并针对性地提出不同环境收益下绿色信贷的差异性浮动合同利率管理模式和第三方担保机构的多元业务管理模式,为绿色信贷的制度创新提供建议参考。面向企业生态创新的绿色信贷制度,可在激励企业加大生态创新、提升竞争力的同时,降低绿色信贷的信贷违约风险和环境社会风险,有助于绿色信贷的可持续发展。     

News sentiment,credit spreads,and information asymmetry

This paper examines how the sentiment of firm-specific news affects CDS spreads conditional on the degree of information asymmetry. Using a large set of news releases, we document a strong negative relationship between the sentiment of firm-specific news and CDS spreads. More importantly, consistent with the role of public news in reducing information asymmetry, we find evidence that the relation between news sentiment and CDS spreads is stronger for firms with higher information asymmetry. Furthermore, the relation is stronger for news with negative sentiment and during the 2008 financial crisis. Our results are robust to alternative sentiment measures.     

Compensation for illiquidity in China: Evidence from an alternative measure

This paper shows that liquidity is an important source of priced risk in China. Using A-share stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange over the period 2007–2017, we examine the influence of liquidity on stock returns. A new liquidity measure that captures multiple dimensions of liquidity is proposed. Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression shows that the expected return is negatively correlated with liquidity. Based on Fama and French (1993), we propose a five-factor pricing model by incorporating reversal factor and liquidity factor. Time-series regressions show that the liquidity factor makes significantly marginal contributions to explaining excess stock returns. The liquidity factor based on the proposed measure works better than alternative liquidity measures such as turnover, Amihud illiquidity measure and the measure in Liu (2006).